For Me, TV Is Dying.

This post isn't about business per se, but it does have long term ramifications for the marketplace in general, so bear with me. Last night, I realized I REALLY HATE commercials. Despise - Abhor - Loathe - Detest . . . You get my drift. I know, we all hate commercials — but they have become irrelevant to my viewing habits. They're just a nuisance.

My wife and I were watching 'Fear The Walking Dead' on AMC. We made the decision to record it on our DVR and then watch it with FF capability at 10 PM. At 10 PM, we started the recording and it seemed like there were 8-10 commercials during each break during the show (the show runs 43 minutes).

We really wanted to measure the span of the episode vs. the accumulated time of the commercials — we were almost sure they were the same. Here's the interesting part — we even hated commercials that we had to FF through. Why?

We've moved on. We have Netflix and Amazon on our TV (Roku), we watch them also on our iPads and MacBooks. Guess what? No commercials. In fact, my wife and I have been binge-watching The Good Wife (never saw it before) and are very comfortable flying through episodes with no breaks, commercials, or advertising. All for a small Amazon Prime payment each month.

We also use our DVR for almost all of our TV viewing habits. We record the shows and FLY through the commercials. So we don't even see them anymore — just fast moving pictures flashing on our screen — an annoyance for 5-10 seconds.

Here's the kicker — we're in our early 50's. I know that all generations after us, GenX, GenY, Millenials, etc., have even more fleeting TV viewing habits. In fact, most kids I know don't even watch TV anymore — they get all their entertainment from their iPhones, iPads, PC's, Twitch, YouTube and gaming consoles. Families rarely gather in front of the TV to watch shows together.

There's going to be a tipping point soon where advertisers quickly realize no one is watching their commercials. The rating systems are antiquated and really don't produce true viewer habits (read this and this and this). The viewing public is slowing moving away from conventional TV viewing and quickly abandoning any type of commercial exposure.

What will happen to TV and shows like The Good Wife, Arrow, and Fear The Walking Dead? I don't know — each episode probably runs the network millions of dollars to produce and the money needs to come from somewhere. Maybe the Netflix/Amazon model will take over (see what happened to Longmire). I love watching House of Cards and Daredevil — I wouldn't even mind paying more for Netflix/Amazon Prime if they substantially increased the amount of shows they release.

In the end, commercials are irrelevant to me. If things keep going the way they are, the only generation who will care about commercials are the people who care about the "I've fallen and I can't get up" commercials. Again, I understand commercials 'pay' for my show — but I really DON'T CARE.

If you're a business who advertises on TV, and you haven't started already, you better start anticipating major changes soon. This will greatly affect all aspects of TV as we know it — so if you're a network, you probably see the writing on the wall.

"Come gather 'round people Wherever you roam And admit that the waters Around you have grown And accept it that soon You'll be drenched to the bone. If your time to you Is worth savin' Then you better start swimmin' Or you'll sink like a stone For the times they are a-changin'"

The Times They Are A-Changin'  — Bob Dylan

How OLD Are You? Generational Strengths & Weaknesses.

There are many positives and negatives with age during your career. Sometimes you have more energy and sometimes you have more experience. Other times, a new perspective or more gravitas. Even when managing your team, you need to take into account what their strengths and weaknesses are — and capitalize or anticipate them. In today's post, I'd like to highly generalize my experience, interpretations, and understanding of each generation. They might not (and probably not) fully compare to you — but they are a broad interpretation of the workforce in general.

In any event, different age groups act differently . . . so where are you?

Your 20's

Just starting out - getting your feet wet - absorbing, learning, winning, losing.

Strengths: Young, lots of energy, new ideas, enthusiasm, fresh perspectives. Technology: You easily adopt any new tool or product and start using it immediately.

Weaknesses: Little or no experience, frustrates easily, limited knowledge, lacking in sophisticated interpersonal skill applications. Doesn't fully understand impacts and implications of behavior or decisions. Personal issues: likes to party, meeting partners, stays out late/comes in late.

Your 30's

Getting better, knowing more, developing relationships, slowing understanding how the game is played.

Strengths: More stable, able to take on more responsibility, better knowledge & experience, lots of energy, ready to move up - starting management positions. This is where they start to define their business personality. Technology: On the burning edge of technology - the ability to adopt it and use it with good business sense.

Weaknesses: Ready to move up - but not there yet, sometimes pushes the wrong way, personal issues: getting married/kids.

Your 40's

On the glide path - the right mix of experience, knowledge and energy.

Strengths: Number of years of critical business experience, deep knowledge of industry, great presenter, building gravitas, understands the complexities of the business and interpersonal relationships, growing manager. Know when to hold their tongue - there's a bit more at stake. Technology: Leveraging many new and old tools - but the newer ones are perplexing you a bit.

Weaknesses: Knows how everything works in business and gets disgruntled. Challenges authority, Personal issues: kids growing/school AND mid-life crises.

Your 50's

At the height of your ability - leadership and management talents abound. You are a linchpin!

Strengths: Gravitas - you can enter almost any room or situation and handle it easily, you've seen it all - so your reaction time is shorter, nothing really fazes you, your contact sphere is phenomenal - you can connect with virtually anyone and get things done.

Weaknesses: Your energy level is starting to wane a bit, you're not as energetic and enthusiastic as you were in your 20's/30's. Highly critical of stupid decisions and can easily see solutions on the horizon. HR & corporate tend to devalue you - watch out for personel cuts. Personal issues: kids in college/possible issues with marriage/death of parents. Technology: Starting to let it go - missing out on new innovations that streamline and integrate work.

Your 60's

Coming down for a smooth landing.

Strengths: Everyone approaches to you for advice - you are THE sensei. Great management, leadership, and direction are like breathing. Companies should show you off to clients and give advice to prospects. Personal: Kids are out of the house and grown - you have the time to work late and travel.

Weaknesses: Your energy level is slowing way down - no more 10-12 hour days. You might miss faster moving objects - people, projects, technology. Especially technology: we tend to become luddites - we disregard new advances and stay with the old (comfort zone issues). Watch out for HR & Corporate - they love to eliminate your position instantly.

Your 70's, 80's, 90's

Enough already - unless you've perfected the perfect platform and formula for continuing work - time to take it easy.

How The Boomers Screwed Up OR We Can All Do Better.

I've been struggling with this generational paradox for the past 5-10 years and have asked a ton of people what they think about it. This theory comes closest to what I feel happened, is happening, and probably will happen. Enjoy! Here's my basic understanding of what went down (this is a long one — so stay with me — it's really important):

The generation that birthed the Baby Boomers suffered like hell. Depression, World War II; they shouldered everything.

So when the US was growing more successful following WWII, they didn't want their children to suffer. And their kids loved this. They lived in relative safety, had a clear boogeyman to fear in the USSR and ideology to love in the US of A. They got opportunities, whether to get jobs straight out of high school, or go to college, or travel the world, or whatever. Not everyone got this, of course, since we still did have poor souls shipped out to Vietnam.

They got awesome music, got to experiment with drugs, and then got jobs alongside their hardworking, nose-to-the-grindstone parents of the "Greatest Generation". And as those parents retired and died, we were left with a overwhelming number of coddled, spoiled children running the show.

And the problem with that is that they haven't grown up. They didn't understand the hardships that drove their parents' decisions. So they made decisions that didn't aim to avoid those hardships, which has saddled us with debt, terrible regulations of tons of industries, and a number of unwanted and unwinnable wars (Iraq, Afghanistan, Drugs), which has led to Gen Xers and Millenials getting the short end of the stick, and being generally bitter about it.

Even a cursory glance at what we call the generations even gives some insight into the Boomers' thoughts toward their children compared to their parents. "Greatest Generation" vs. "Generation X". Past vs. future, and the future gets humped.

Now, that's not to say that every Boomer is like that. Plenty aren't. It's also not to say that this is a 100% correct reading of the situation, but it does seem to reflect what history has shown (so far) the Greatest Generation, Boomers, and Gen Xers to do.

I'm a firm believer in Strauss-Howe generational theory. We've repeated the same cycle of generational 'types' and social climes since the 1700's. Baby boomers are 'idealistic moralists' in favor of wars they themselves don't fight in, and they incite others to make sacrifices. The crisis they are driving us into will have to be dealt with by the scruffy, pragmatic Gen-Xers.

Here's the gist of the theory (from Wikipedia):

To date, Strauss and Howe have identified 25 generations in Anglo-American history, each with a corresponding archetype. The authors describe the archetypes as follows:

Prophet

Born in 1809 and coming of age during the Transcendental Awakening, Abraham Lincoln is identified as a member of a Prophet generation - the Transcendentals.

Prophet generations (dominant) are born after a Crisis, during a time of rejuvenated community life and consensus around a new societal order. Prophets grow up as the increasingly indulged children of this post-Crisis era, come of age as self-absorbed young crusaders of an Awakening, focus on morals and principles in midlife, and emerge as elders guiding another Crisis.

Due to this location in history, such generations tend to be remembered for their coming-of-age fervor and their values-oriented elder leadership. Their main societal contributions are in the area ofvision, values, and religion. Their best-known historical leaders include John Winthrop, William Berkeley, Samuel Adams, Benjamin Franklin, James Polk, Abraham Lincoln, Herbert Hoover, and Franklin Roosevelt. These were principled moralists who waged idealistic wars and incited others to sacrifice. Few of them fought themselves in decisive wars, and they are remembered more for their inspiring words than for great actions. (Examples among today’s living generations: Boomers.)

Nomad

Nomad generations (recessive) are born during an Awakening, a time of social ideals and spiritual agendas, when young adults are passionately attacking the established institutional order. Nomads grow up as under-protected children during this Awakening, come of age as alienated, post-Awakening adults, become pragmatic midlife leaders during a Crisis, and age into resilient post-Crisis elders.

Due to this location in history, such generations tend to be remembered for their adrift, alienated rising-adult years and their midlife years of pragmatic leadership. Their main societal contributions are in the area of liberty, survival and honor. Their best-known historical leaders include Nathaniel Bacon, William Stoughton, George Washington, John Adams, Ulysses Grant, Grover Cleveland, Harry Truman, and Dwight Eisenhower. These were shrewd realists who preferred individualistic, pragmatic solutions to problems. (Examples among today’s living generations: Generation X.)

Hero

Young adults fighting in World War II were born in the early part of the 20th century, like PT109 commander LTJG John F. Kennedy (b. 1917). They are part of the G.I. Generation, which follows the Hero archetype.

Hero generations (dominant) are born after an Awakening, during a time of individual pragmatism, self-reliance, and laissez faire. Heroes grow up as increasingly protected post-Awakening children, come of age as team-oriented young optimists during a Crisis, emerge as energetic, overly-confident midlifers, and age into politically powerful elders attacked by another Awakening. 

Due to this location in history, such generations tend to be remembered for their collective military triumphs in young adulthood and their political achievements as elders. Their main societal contributions are in the area of community, affluence, and technology. Their best-known historical leaders include Cotton Mather, Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, John F. Kennedy and Ronald Reagan. These have been vigorous and rational institution builders. In midlife, all have been aggressive advocates of economic prosperity and public optimism, and all have maintained a reputation for civic energy and competence in old age. (Examples among today’s living generations: Millennials.)

Artist

Artist generations (recessive) are born during a Crisis, a time when great dangers cut down social and political complexity in favor of public consensus, aggressive institutions, and an ethic of personal sacrifice. Artists grow up overprotected by adults preoccupied with the Crisis, come of age as the socialized and conformist young adults of a post-Crisis world, break out as process-oriented midlife leaders during an Awakening, and age into thoughtful post-Awakening elders.

Due to this location in history, such generations tend to be remembered for their quiet years of rising adulthood and their midlife years of flexible, consensus-building leadership. Their main societal contributions are in the area of expertise and due process. Their best-known historical leaders include William Shirley, Cadwallader Colden, John Quincy Adams,Andrew Jackson, Theodore Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson. These have been complex social technicians and advocates for fairness and inclusion. (Examples among today’s living generations: Silent and Homelanders.)

One reason why the cycle of archetypes recurs is that each youth generation tries to correct or compensate for what it perceives as the excesses of the midlife generation in power. For example, Boomers (a Prophet generation, whose strength is individualism, culture and values) raised Millennial children (a Hero generation, whose strength is in collective civic action). Archetypes do not create archetypes like themselves, they create opposing archetypes.

As Strauss and Howe explain, “your generation isn’t like the generation that shaped you, but it has much in common with the generation that shaped the generation that shaped you.” This also occurs because the societal role that feels freshest to each generation of youth is the role being vacated by a generation of elders that is passing away. In other words, a youth generation comes of age and defines its collective persona just as an opposing generational archetype is in its midlife peak of power, and the previous generation of their archetype is passing away.

By the way — I'm a boomer (a late boomer - born in 1962), but still a boomer.

P.S. I'm expecting a lot of hate mail on this one — but I encourage two-way communication — that's what this blog is about!